9.3 参考文献
全部 237 条文献于 2026-10-14 逐条核验。正文的 [@key] 引用都链接到本页，悬停可看完整书目。
| 类型 | 条数 | 核验方式 | 结果 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 有 DOI 的期刊与会议论文 | 169 | Crossref 接口核对题名与年份 | C 169 / 169 通过 |
| arXiv 预印本 | 9 | arXiv 接口核对题名 | arXiv 9 / 9 通过 |
| 书籍、报告、杂志文章 | 59 | 按标准书目信息列出，未在线逐条核对 | 书目 59 条 |
核验备注：Klyubin, Polani & Nehaniv, 2005：Crossref record has no date; title matched。
目标与动机 20 条#
- Locke, E. A., & Latham, G. P. (2002). Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation: A 35-year odyssey. American Psychologist, 57(9), 705–717. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.57.9.705 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，2.4 按情境选择策略，P01 目标是可判定的未来事件，同时在场最多 3 个，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Seijts, G. H., & Latham, G. P. (2001). The effect of distal learning, outcome, and proximal goals on a moderately complex task. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 22(3), 291–307. https://doi.org/10.1002/job.70 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，P03 新任务先设学习目标，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kanfer, R., & Ackerman, P. L. (1989). Motivation and cognitive abilities: An integrative/aptitude-treatment interaction approach to skill acquisition. Journal of Applied Psychology, 74(4), 657–690. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.74.4.657 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，P03 新任务先设学习目标，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Wood, R. E., Mento, A. J., & Locke, E. A. (1987). Task complexity as a moderator of goal effects: A meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 72(3), 416–425. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.72.3.416 C被引用于：P03 新任务先设学习目标，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Shah, J. Y., Friedman, R., & Kruglanski, A. W. (2002). Forgetting all else: On the antecedents and consequences of goal shielding. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(6), 1261–1280. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.83.6.1261 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kruglanski, A. W., Shah, J. Y., Fishbach, A., Friedman, R., Chun, W. Y., & Sleeth-Keppler, D. (2002). A theory of goal systems. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 34, 331–378. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(02)80008-9 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，P01 目标是可判定的未来事件，同时在场最多 3 个，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Sheldon, K. M., & Elliot, A. J. (1999). Goal striving, need satisfaction, and longitudinal well-being: The self-concordance model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76(3), 482–497. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.76.3.482 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，P02 目标连着「为什么」，允许改写或放弃，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Ryan, R. M., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Self-determination theory and the facilitation of intrinsic motivation, social development, and well-being. American Psychologist, 55(1), 68–78. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.55.1.68 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，P02 目标连着「为什么」，允许改写或放弃，P16 反馈指向任务，不指向人，P22 自主与主人层归人，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Deci, E. L., Koestner, R., & Ryan, R. M. (1999). A meta-analytic review of experiments examining the effects of extrinsic rewards on intrinsic motivation. Psychological Bulletin, 125(6), 627–668. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.125.6.627 C被引用于：P16 反馈指向任务，不指向人，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Wrosch, C., Scheier, M. F., Miller, G. E., Schulz, R., & Carver, C. S. (2003). Adaptive self-regulation of unattainable goals: Goal disengagement, goal reengagement, and subjective well-being. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 29(12), 1494–1508. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167203256921 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，P02 目标连着「为什么」，允许改写或放弃，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kivetz, R., Urminsky, O., & Zheng, Y. (2006). The goal-gradient hypothesis resurrected: Purchase acceleration, illusionary goal progress, and customer retention. Journal of Marketing Research, 43(1), 39–58. https://doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.43.1.39 C被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Bonezzi, A., Brendl, C. M., & De Angelis, M. (2011). Stuck in the middle: The psychophysics of goal pursuit. Psychological Science, 22(5), 607–612. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797611404899 C被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Amabile, T. M., & Kramer, S. J. (2011). The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work. Harvard Business Review Press. 书目被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，P18 内环先闭合，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Oettingen, G. (2012). Future thought and behaviour change. European Review of Social Psychology, 23(1), 1–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2011.643698 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，P10 下一步写成「如果—那么」，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Oettingen, G., & Mayer, D. (2002). The motivating function of thinking about the future: Expectations versus fantasies. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 83(5), 1198–1212. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.83.5.1198 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kappes, H. B., & Oettingen, G. (2011). Positive fantasies about idealized futures sap energy. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 47(4), 719–729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2011.02.003 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Wang, G., Wang, Y., & Gai, X. (2021). A meta-analysis of the effects of mental contrasting with implementation intentions on goal attainment. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 565202. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.565202 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，P10 下一步写成「如果—那么」，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Ordóñez, L. D., Schweitzer, M. E., Galinsky, A. D., & Bazerman, M. H. (2009). Goals gone wild: The systematic side effects of overprescribing goal setting. Academy of Management Perspectives, 23(1), 6–16. https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2009.37007999 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，P03 新任务先设学习目标，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Brehm, J. W., & Self, E. A. (1989). The intensity of motivation. Annual Review of Psychology, 40, 109–131. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ps.40.020189.000545 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，P19 事先写止损线，定期问停还是换，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Richter, M., Gendolla, G. H. E., & Wright, R. A. (2016). Three decades of research on motivational intensity theory: What we have learned about effort and what we still don't know. Advances in Motivation Science, 3, 149–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.adms.2016.02.001 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，第 8 部分 理论卡
自我调节与执行 35 条#
- Carver, C. S., & Scheier, M. F. (1982). Control theory: A useful conceptual framework for personality–social, clinical, and health psychology. Psychological Bulletin, 92(1), 111–135. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.92.1.111 C被引用于：1.2 从意图到现实改变的行动链，F1 方向失败，F6 反馈与学习失败，2.3 嵌套节律，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P01 目标是可判定的未来事件，同时在场最多 3 个，P18 内环先闭合，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Powers, W. T. (1973). Behavior: The Control of Perception. Aldine. 书目被引用于：1.2 从意图到现实改变的行动链，F6 反馈与学习失败，2.3 嵌套节律，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P18 内环先闭合，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Heckhausen, H., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (1987). Thought contents and cognitive functioning in motivational versus volitional states of mind. Motivation and Emotion, 11(2), 101–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992338 C被引用于：1.2 从意图到现实改变的行动链，2.3 嵌套节律，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Sheeran, P. (2002). Intention–behavior relations: A conceptual and empirical review. European Review of Social Psychology, 12(1), 1–36. https://doi.org/10.1080/14792772143000003 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Webb, T. L., & Sheeran, P. (2006). Does changing behavioral intentions engender behavior change? A meta-analysis of the experimental evidence. Psychological Bulletin, 132(2), 249–268. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.132.2.249 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. American Psychologist, 54(7), 493–503. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.54.7.493 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Gollwitzer, P. M., & Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation intentions and goal achievement: A meta-analysis of effects and processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38, 69–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，P10 下一步写成「如果—那么」，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Sheeran, P., Listrom, O., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (2025). The when and how of planning: Meta-analysis of the scope and components of implementation intentions in 642 tests. European Review of Social Psychology, 36(1), 162–194. https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2024.2334563 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，P10 下一步写成「如果—那么」，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Harkin, B., Webb, T. L., Chang, B. P. I., Prestwich, A., Conner, M., Kellar, I., Benn, Y., & Sheeran, P. (2016). Does monitoring goal progress promote goal attainment? A meta-analysis of the experimental evidence. Psychological Bulletin, 142(2), 198–229. https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000025 C被引用于：F5 他人与资源失败
- Steel, P. (2007). The nature of procrastination: A meta-analytic and theoretical review of quintessential self-regulatory failure. Psychological Bulletin, 133(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.65 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Steel, P., & König, C. J. (2006). Integrating theories of motivation. Academy of Management Review, 31(4), 889–913. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2006.22527462 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Duckworth, A. L., Gendler, T. S., & Gross, J. J. (2016). Situational strategies for self-control. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11(1), 35–55. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615623247 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，P11 改环境，不靠意志力，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Duckworth, A. L., Milkman, K. L., & Laibson, D. (2018). Beyond willpower: Strategies for reducing failures of self-control. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 19(3), 102–129. https://doi.org/10.1177/1529100618821893 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Hagger, M. S., Chatzisarantis, N. L. D., Alberts, H., et al. (2016). A multilab preregistered replication of the ego-depletion effect. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11(4), 546–573. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691616652873 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Vohs, K. D., Schmeichel, B. J., Lohmann, S., et al. (2021). A multisite preregistered paradigmatic test of the ego-depletion effect. Psychological Science, 32(10), 1566–1581. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797621989733 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Lally, P., van Jaarsveld, C. H. M., Potts, H. W. W., & Wardle, J. (2010). How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world. European Journal of Social Psychology, 40(6), 998–1009. https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.674 C被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，P11 改环境，不靠意志力，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Wood, W., & Rünger, D. (2016). Psychology of habit. Annual Review of Psychology, 67, 289–314. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-122414-033417 C被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，P11 改环境，不靠意志力，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Gardner, B., Lally, P., & Wardle, J. (2012). Making health habitual: The psychology of 'habit-formation' and general practice. British Journal of General Practice, 62(605), 664–666. https://doi.org/10.3399/bjgp12X659466 C被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a unifying theory of behavioral change. Psychological Review, 84(2), 191–215. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.84.2.191 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Bandura, A. (1997). Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control. W. H. Freeman. 书目被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，P20 每次协助都留下更强的人，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Stajkovic, A. D., & Luthans, F. (1998). Self-efficacy and work-related performance: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 124(2), 240–261. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.124.2.240 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Vancouver, J. B., Thompson, C. M., & Williams, A. A. (2001). The changing signs in the relationships among self-efficacy, personal goals, and performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 86(4), 605–620. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.86.4.605 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Sitzmann, T., & Yeo, G. (2013). A meta-analytic investigation of the within-person self-efficacy domain: Is self-efficacy a product of past performance or a driver of future performance? Personnel Psychology, 66(3), 531–568. https://doi.org/10.1111/peps.12035 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，P20 每次协助都留下更强的人，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Bandura, A., & Schunk, D. H. (1981). Cultivating competence, self-efficacy, and intrinsic interest through proximal self-motivation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 41(3), 586–598. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.41.3.586 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Gollwitzer, P. M., Sheeran, P., Michalski, V., & Seifert, A. E. (2009). When intentions go public: Does social reality widen the intention-behavior gap? Psychological Science, 20(5), 612–618. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2009.02336.x C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Fishbach, A., & Dhar, R. (2005). Goals as excuses or guides: The liberating effect of perceived goal progress on choice. Journal of Consumer Research, 32(3), 370–377. https://doi.org/10.1086/497548 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Masicampo, E. J., & Baumeister, R. F. (2011). Consider it done! Plan making can eliminate the cognitive effects of unfulfilled goals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 101(4), 667–683. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024192 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Fogg, B. J. (2009). A behavior model for persuasive design. Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Persuasive Technology, Article 40. https://doi.org/10.1145/1541948.1541999 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，P11 改环境，不靠意志力，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Michie, S., van Stralen, M. M., & West, R. (2011). The behaviour change wheel: A new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implementation Science, 6, 42. https://doi.org/10.1186/1748-5908-6-42 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，P11 改环境，不靠意志力，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Nahum-Shani, I., Smith, S. N., Spring, B. J., Collins, L. M., Witkiewitz, K., Tewari, A., & Murphy, S. A. (2018). Just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) in mobile health: Key components and design principles for ongoing health behavior support. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 52(6), 446–462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12160-016-9830-8 C被引用于：P15 回报的成本远低于产出，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Klasnja, P., Hekler, E. B., Shiffman, S., Boruvka, A., Almirall, D., Tewari, A., & Murphy, S. A. (2015). Microrandomized trials: An experimental design for developing just-in-time adaptive interventions. Health Psychology, 34(Suppl), 1220–1228. https://doi.org/10.1037/hea0000305 C被引用于：7.1 单被试实验设计，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Milkman, K. L., Gromet, D., Ho, H., et al. (2021). Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioural science. Nature, 600, 478–483. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04128-4 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- DellaVigna, S., & Linos, E. (2022). RCTs to scale: Comprehensive evidence from two nudge units. Econometrica, 90(1), 81–116. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA18709 C被引用于：F4 启动与执行失败，P11 改环境，不靠意志力，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Maier, M., Bartoš, F., Stanley, T. D., Shanks, D. R., Harris, A. J. L., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2022). No evidence for nudging after adjusting for publication bias. PNAS, 119(31), e2200300119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200300119 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Bryan, G., Karlan, D., & Nelson, S. (2010). Commitment devices. Annual Review of Economics, 2, 671–698. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124324 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
决策与不确定性 33 条#
- Simon, H. A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99–118. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852 C被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，F2 模型失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Simon, H. A. (1971). Designing organizations for an information-rich world. In M. Greenberger (Ed.), Computers, Communications, and the Public Interest (pp. 37–72). Johns Hopkins Press. 书目被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，P21 注意力预算：AI 消耗的必须少于它省下的，4.4 注意力经济，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Howard, R. A. (1966). Information value theory. IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics, 2(1), 22–26. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1966.300074 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，2.2 三种价值，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P04 模型够用即止，价值按「改变了哪个决定」计，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Gigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 62, 451–482. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，P04 模型够用即止，价值按「改变了哪个决定」计，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，P09 小、真、可逆优先，不可逆的加闸，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kahneman, D., & Lovallo, D. (1993). Timid choices and bold forecasts: A cognitive perspective on risk taking. Management Science, 39(1), 17–31. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.39.1.17 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to project management: Getting risks right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697280603700302 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，2.4 按情境选择策略，7.3 一人多角的偏差与对策，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Klein, G. (2007). Performing a project premortem. Harvard Business Review, 85(9), 18–19. 书目被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，P19 事先写止损线，定期问停还是换，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Mitchell, D. J., Russo, J. E., & Pennington, N. (1989). Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2(1), 25–38. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960020103 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Baron, J., & Hershey, J. C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54(4), 569–579. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.569 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，F6 反馈与学习失败，P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Duke, A. (2018). Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts. Portfolio. 书目被引用于：F6 反馈与学习失败，P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Duke, A. (2022). Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. Portfolio. 书目被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，P19 事先写止损线，定期问停还是换，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Staw, B. M. (1976). Knee-deep in the big muddy: A study of escalating commitment to a chosen course of action. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16(1), 27–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(76)90005-2 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，F7 持续与适应失败，P19 事先写止损线，定期问停还是换，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Sleesman, D. J., Conlon, D. E., McNamara, G., & Miles, J. E. (2012). Cleaning up the big muddy: A meta-analytic review of the determinants of escalation of commitment. Academy of Management Journal, 55(3), 541–562. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2010.0696 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，F7 持续与适应失败，P02 目标连着「为什么」，允许改写或放弃，P19 事先写止损线，定期问停还是换，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The psychology of sunk cost. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 35(1), 124–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(85)90049-4 C被引用于：F1 方向失败，F7 持续与适应失败，P19 事先写止损线，定期问停还是换，第 8 部分 理论卡
- March, J. G. (1991). Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organization Science, 2(1), 71–87. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2.1.71 C被引用于：F3 选择失败，P07 三价值评分，至少三个候选：一个触达现实、一个探索，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Levinthal, D. A., & March, J. G. (1993). The myopia of learning. Strategic Management Journal, 14(S2), 95–112. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250141009 C被引用于：F3 选择失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- McGrath, R. G. (1999). Falling forward: Real options reasoning and entrepreneurial failure. Academy of Management Review, 24(1), 13–30. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1999.1580438 C被引用于：F3 选择失败，2.2 三种价值，P09 小、真、可逆优先，不可逆的加闸，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press. 书目被引用于：F3 选择失败，2.2 三种价值，P09 小、真、可逆优先，不可逆的加闸，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., et al. (2014). Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Psychological Science, 25(5), 1106–1115. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255 C被引用于：P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，P24 信任跟着记录走，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown. 书目被引用于：P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kahneman, D., & Klein, G. (2009). Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree. American Psychologist, 64(6), 515–526. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0016755 C被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Klein, G. (2008). Naturalistic decision making. Human Factors, 50(3), 456–460. https://doi.org/10.1518/001872008X288385 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Nutt, P. C. (1999). Surprising but true: Half the decisions in organizations fail. Academy of Management Executive, 13(4), 75–90. https://doi.org/10.5465/ame.1999.2570556 C被引用于：F3 选择失败，P07 三价值评分，至少三个候选：一个触达现实、一个探索，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Eisenhardt, K. M. (1989). Making fast strategic decisions in high-velocity environments. Academy of Management Journal, 32(3), 543–576. https://doi.org/10.2307/256434 C被引用于：F3 选择失败，P07 三价值评分，至少三个候选：一个触达现实、一个探索，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175–220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，P06 异源证据、主动反证，AI 不是 AI 的证人，7.3 一人多角的偏差与对策，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Friston, K., Rigoli, F., Ognibene, D., Mathys, C., Fitzgerald, T., & Pezzulo, G. (2015). Active inference and epistemic value. Cognitive Neuroscience, 6(4), 187–214. https://doi.org/10.1080/17588928.2015.1020053 C被引用于：2.2 三种价值，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P14 学习附着在行动上，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Parr, T., Pezzulo, G., & Friston, K. J. (2022). Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior. MIT Press. 书目被引用于：2.2 三种价值，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Klyubin, A. S., Polani, D., & Nehaniv, C. L. (2005). Empowerment: A universal agent-centric measure of control. 2005 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation, 1, 128–135. https://doi.org/10.1109/CEC.2005.1554676 C被引用于：2.2 三种价值，2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，2.7 九条可证伪命题，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Jaynes, E. T. (2003). Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge University Press. 书目被引用于：P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，6.4 建议修改清单
- Zahavi, A. (1975). Mate selection—A selection for a handicap. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 53(1), 205–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-5193(75)90111-3 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Spence, M. (1973). Job market signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Samuelson, P. A. (1948). Consumption theory in terms of revealed preference. Economica, 15(60), 243–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2549561 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，第 8 部分 理论卡
复杂系统与战略 31 条#
- Sterman, J. D. (1989). Modeling managerial behavior: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment. Management Science, 35(3), 321–339. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.35.3.321 C被引用于：F2 模型失败，P05 先找瓶颈与杠杆，写明延迟和关键他人，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin/McGraw-Hill. 书目被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，F8 系统结构失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Meadows, D. H. (1999). Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System. The Sustainability Institute. 书目被引用于：F8 系统结构失败，P05 先找瓶颈与杠杆，写明延迟和关键他人，5.3 结构性改变，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green. 书目被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. Doubleday. 书目被引用于：F8 系统结构失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Ashby, W. R. (1956). An Introduction to Cybernetics. Chapman & Hall. 书目被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，P27 规则有生命周期，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Snowden, D. J., & Boone, M. E. (2007). A leader's framework for decision making. Harvard Business Review, 85(11), 68–76. 书目被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，F2 模型失败，F7 持续与适应失败，2.4 按情境选择策略，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P04 模型够用即止，价值按「改变了哪个决定」计，P08 按情境切换策略，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Rittel, H. W. J., & Webber, M. M. (1973). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences, 4(2), 155–169. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01405730 C被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Sarasvathy, S. D. (2001). Causation and effectuation: Toward a theoretical shift from economic inevitability to entrepreneurial contingency. Academy of Management Review, 26(2), 243–263. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2001.4378020 C被引用于：F6 反馈与学习失败，2.4 按情境选择策略，P08 按情境切换策略，P09 小、真、可逆优先，不可逆的加闸，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Read, S., Song, M., & Smit, W. (2009). A meta-analytic review of effectuation and venture performance. Journal of Business Venturing, 24(6), 573–587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2008.02.005 C被引用于：2.4 按情境选择策略，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P08 按情境切换策略，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Wiltbank, R., Dew, N., Read, S., & Sarasvathy, S. D. (2006). What to do next? The case for non-predictive strategy. Strategic Management Journal, 27(10), 981–998. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.555 C被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，2.4 按情境选择策略，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P08 按情境切换策略，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Lindblom, C. E. (1959). The science of "muddling through." Public Administration Review, 19(2), 79–88. https://doi.org/10.2307/973677 C被引用于：2.4 按情境选择策略，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Osinga, F. P. B. (2007). Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd. Routledge. 书目被引用于：2.3 嵌套节律，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Repenning, N. P., & Sterman, J. D. (2001). Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened: Creating and sustaining process improvement. California Management Review, 43(4), 64–88. https://doi.org/10.2307/41166101 C被引用于：F8 系统结构失败，P21 注意力预算：AI 消耗的必须少于它省下的，6.2 重心错位的根因，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Repenning, N. P., & Sterman, J. D. (2002). Capability traps and self-confirming attribution errors in the dynamics of process improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47(2), 265–295. https://doi.org/10.2307/3094806 C被引用于：F8 系统结构失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Goldratt, E. M., & Cox, J. (1984). The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement. North River Press. 书目被引用于：F5 他人与资源失败，P05 先找瓶颈与杠杆，写明延迟和关键他人，P12 在手的事少而真，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Little, J. D. C. (1961). A proof for the queuing formula: L = λW. Operations Research, 9(3), 383–387. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.9.3.383 C被引用于：F5 他人与资源失败，P12 在手的事少而真，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Hogarth, R. M., Lejarraga, T., & Soyer, E. (2015). The two settings of kind and wicked learning environments. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(5), 379–385. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721415591878 C被引用于：1.1 复杂目标与结构性改变，F2 模型失败，P17 判断过程而非结果，按证据强度定步长，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Rasmussen, J. (1997). Risk management in a dynamic society: A modelling problem. Safety Science, 27(2–3), 183–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-7535(97)00052-0 C被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，P02 目标连着「为什么」，允许改写或放弃，P27 规则有生命周期，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Vaughan, D. (1996). The Challenger Launch Decision: Risky Technology, Culture, and Deviance at NASA. University of Chicago Press. 书目被引用于：F7 持续与适应失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Scott, J. C. (1998). Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed. Yale University Press. 书目被引用于：P26 治理与后果相称，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Bungay, S. (2011). The Art of Action: How Leaders Close the Gaps between Plans, Actions and Results. Nicholas Brealey. 书目被引用于：5.2 团队与组织，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Langley, A. (1995). Between "paralysis by analysis" and "extinction by instinct." Sloan Management Review, 36(3), 63–76. 书目被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Arrhenius, S. (1889). Über die Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit bei der Inversion von Rohrzucker durch Säuren. Zeitschrift für Physikalische Chemie, 4, 226–248. https://doi.org/10.1515/zpch-1889-0416 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kramers, H. A. (1940). Brownian motion in a field of force and the diffusion model of chemical reactions. Physica, 7(4), 284–304. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-8914(40)90098-2 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Hänggi, P., Talkner, P., & Borkovec, M. (1990). Reaction-rate theory: Fifty years after Kramers. Reviews of Modern Physics, 62(2), 251–341. https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.62.251 C被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Waddington, C. H. (1957). The Strategy of the Genes. Allen & Unwin. 书目被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，第 8 部分 理论卡
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学习与证据 23 条#
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- Argyris, C. (1977). Double loop learning in organizations. Harvard Business Review, 55(5), 115–125. 书目被引用于：F6 反馈与学习失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Langley, G. J., Moen, R. D., Nolan, K. M., Nolan, T. W., Norman, C. L., & Provost, L. P. (2009). The Improvement Guide (2nd ed.). Jossey-Bass. 书目被引用于：P14 学习附着在行动上，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Deming, W. E. (1986). Out of the Crisis. MIT Press. 书目被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Tannenbaum, S. I., & Cerasoli, C. P. (2013). Do team and individual debriefs enhance performance? A meta-analysis. Human Factors, 55(1), 231–245. https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720812448394 C被引用于：F6 反馈与学习失败，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kluger, A. N., & DeNisi, A. (1996). The effects of feedback interventions on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. Psychological Bulletin, 119(2), 254–284. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.119.2.254 C被引用于：F6 反馈与学习失败，P16 反馈指向任务，不指向人，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Ericsson, K. A., Krampe, R. T., & Tesch-Römer, C. (1993). The role of deliberate practice in the acquisition of expert performance. Psychological Review, 100(3), 363–406. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.100.3.363 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Macnamara, B. N., Hambrick, D. Z., & Oswald, F. L. (2014). Deliberate practice and performance in music, games, sports, education, and professions: A meta-analysis. Psychological Science, 25(8), 1608–1618. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614535810 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Heuer, R. J., Jr. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence, CIA. 书目被引用于：P06 异源证据、主动反证，AI 不是 AI 的证人，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Camuffo, A., Cordova, A., Gambardella, A., & Spina, C. (2020). A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision making: Evidence from a randomized control trial. Management Science, 66(2), 564–586. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3249 C被引用于：F6 反馈与学习失败，2.7 九条可证伪命题，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup. Crown Business. 书目被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Kerr, W. R., Nanda, R., & Rhodes-Kropf, M. (2014). Entrepreneurship as experimentation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(3), 25–48. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.28.3.25 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Bjork, R. A. (1994). Memory and metamemory considerations in the training of human beings. In J. Metcalfe & A. Shimamura (Eds.), Metacognition: Knowing about Knowing (pp. 185–205). MIT Press. 书目被引用于：P20 每次协助都留下更强的人，4.5 认知卸载与能力保护，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Wood, D., Bruner, J. S., & Ross, G. (1976). The role of tutoring in problem solving. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 17(2), 89–100. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7610.1976.tb00381.x C被引用于：2.7 九条可证伪命题，P20 每次协助都留下更强的人，4.5 认知卸载与能力保护，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Open Science Collaboration. (2015). Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science. Science, 349(6251), aac4716. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4716 C被引用于：第 7 部分 验证
- Kolb, D. A. (1984). Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Learning and Development. Prentice-Hall. 书目被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Schön, D. A. (1983). The Reflective Practitioner: How Professionals Think in Action. Basic Books. 书目被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Rother, M. (2009). Toyota Kata: Managing People for Improvement, Adaptiveness and Superior Results. McGraw-Hill. 书目被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
- Haynes, A. B., Weiser, T. G., Berry, W. R., et al. (2009). A surgical safety checklist to reduce morbidity and mortality in a global population. New England Journal of Medicine, 360(5), 491–499. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsa0810119 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Dretske, F. (1988). Explaining Behavior: Reasons in a World of Causes. MIT Press. 书目被引用于：2.6 事件发生的地形：三要素，第 8 部分 理论卡
组织与协作 17 条#
- Edmondson, A. (1999). Psychological safety and learning behavior in work teams. Administrative Science Quarterly, 44(2), 350–383. https://doi.org/10.2307/2666999 C被引用于：5.2 团队与组织，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Malone, T. W., & Crowston, K. (1994). The interdisciplinary study of coordination. ACM Computing Surveys, 26(1), 87–119. https://doi.org/10.1145/174666.174668 C被引用于：F5 他人与资源失败，4.8 多智能体协作，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Steiner, I. D. (1972). Group Process and Productivity. Academic Press. 书目被引用于：4.8 多智能体协作，5.1 不变的骨架，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Karau, S. J., & Williams, K. D. (1993). Social loafing: A meta-analytic review and theoretical integration. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65(4), 681–706. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.65.4.681 C被引用于：5.1 不变的骨架，第 8 部分 理论卡
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人机协作与自动化 32 条#
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- Parasuraman, R., Sheridan, T. B., & Wickens, C. D. (2000). A model for types and levels of human interaction with automation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics—Part A, 30(3), 286–297. https://doi.org/10.1109/3468.844354 C被引用于：1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，2.5 人机能动系统，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P13 AI 在现实中行动，按授权扩展，4.2 委托与授权阶梯，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Hoff, K. A., & Bashir, M. (2015). Trust in automation: Integrating empirical evidence on factors that influence trust. Human Factors, 57(3), 407–434. https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720814547570 C被引用于：1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，P24 信任跟着记录走，4.3 信任校准，第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Bradshaw, J. M., Hoffman, R. R., Woods, D. D., & Johnson, M. (2013). The seven deadly myths of "autonomous systems." IEEE Intelligent Systems, 28(3), 54–61. https://doi.org/10.1109/MIS.2013.70 C被引用于：第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Buçinca, Z., Malaya, M. B., & Gajos, K. Z. (2021). To trust or to think: Cognitive forcing functions can reduce overreliance on AI in AI-assisted decision-making. Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction, 5(CSCW1), Article 188. https://doi.org/10.1145/3449287 C被引用于：1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，P24 信任跟着记录走，4.3 信任校准，第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Elish, M. C. (2019). Moral crumple zones: Cautionary tales in human-robot interaction. Engaging Science, Technology, and Society, 5, 40–60. https://doi.org/10.17351/ests2019.260 C被引用于：1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，P25 责任链、可中断、可撤回，4.7 责任与问责，第 8 部分 理论卡
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- European Parliament & Council of the European Union. (2024). Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act), Article 14: Human oversight. Official Journal of the European Union. 书目被引用于：2.5 人机能动系统，4.7 责任与问责，第 8 部分 理论卡
AI 智能体与大语言模型 13 条#
- Feng, K. J. K., McDonald, D. W., & Zhang, A. X. (2025). Levels of autonomy for AI agents. arXiv preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12469 arXiv被引用于：2.5 人机能动系统，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P13 AI 在现实中行动，按授权扩展，4.2 委托与授权阶梯，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Huang, J., Chen, X., Mishra, S., Zheng, H. S., Yu, A. W., Song, X., & Zhou, D. (2024). Large language models cannot self-correct reasoning yet. ICLR 2024 (arXiv preprint). https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.01798 arXiv被引用于：1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，P06 异源证据、主动反证，AI 不是 AI 的证人，4.6 大语言模型的特有风险，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Panickssery, A., Bowman, S. R., & Feng, S. (2024). LLM evaluators recognize and favor their own generations. NeurIPS 2024 (arXiv preprint). https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.13076 arXiv被引用于：F2 模型失败，1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，P06 异源证据、主动反证，AI 不是 AI 的证人，4.6 大语言模型的特有风险，7.3 一人多角的偏差与对策，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Lee, H.-P., Sarkar, A., Tankelevitch, L., Drosos, I., Rintel, S., Banks, R., & Wilson, N. (2025). The impact of generative AI on critical thinking: Self-reported reductions in cognitive effort and confidence effects from a survey of knowledge workers. Proceedings of CHI '25, Article 1121. https://doi.org/10.1145/3706598.3713778 C被引用于：P20 每次协助都留下更强的人，4.5 认知卸载与能力保护，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Gerlich, M. (2025). AI tools in society: Impacts on cognitive offloading and the future of critical thinking. Societies, 15(1), 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/soc15010006 C被引用于：P20 每次协助都留下更强的人，4.5 认知卸载与能力保护，第 8 部分 理论卡
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- Bastani, H., Bastani, O., Sungu, A., Ge, H., Kabakcı, Ö., & Mariman, R. (2025). Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning: Evidence from high school mathematics. PNAS, 122(26), e2422633122. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2422633122 C被引用于：1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，2.7 九条可证伪命题，P20 每次协助都留下更强的人，4.5 认知卸载与能力保护，6.4 建议修改清单，第 8 部分 理论卡
- Cemri, M., Pan, M. Z., Yang, S., et al. (2025). Why do multi-agent LLM systems fail? arXiv preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.13657 arXiv被引用于：1.4 人机协作带来的新失败机制，4.8 多智能体协作，第 8 部分 理论卡
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结构性改变 14 条#
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- Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of Innovations (5th ed.). Free Press. 书目被引用于：5.3 结构性改变，第 8 部分 理论卡
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