14. 参考文献

核验状态：[C] = 2026-10-13 经 Crossref 元数据核对题名、刊名、年份、卷期页（arXiv 条目核对了 arXiv 页面题名）；[v1] = 沿用 v1.0 已核对的条目；[书目] = 书籍、报告、HBR 文章或官方文件，按标准书目信息列出，未在线逐条核对；〔未核实〕 = 存在但本文未核对原件或页码。正文中的具体数字只引用原文或综述报告的数字。

14.1 目标、自我调节与个人行动#

Bandura, A. (2000). Exercise of human agency through collective efficacy. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 9(3), 75–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8721.00064 C被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366 v1被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Carver, C. S., & Scheier, M. F. (1982). Control theory: A useful conceptual framework for personality–social, clinical, and health psychology. Psychological Bulletin, 92(1), 111–135. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.92.1.111 v1被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，理论卡
Duckworth, A. L., Gendler, T. S., & Gross, J. J. (2016). Situational strategies for self-control. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 11(1), 35–55. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615623247 C被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Gollwitzer, P. M. (1999). Implementation intentions: Strong effects of simple plans. American Psychologist, 54(7), 493–503. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.54.7.493 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Gollwitzer, P. M., & Sheeran, P. (2006). Implementation intentions and goal achievement: A meta-analysis of effects and processes. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 38, 69–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2601(06)38002-1 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Harkin, B., Webb, T. L., Chang, B. P. I., et al. (2016). Does monitoring goal progress promote goal attainment? A meta-analysis of the experimental evidence. Psychological Bulletin, 142(2), 198–229. https://doi.org/10.1037/bul0000025 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Heckhausen, H., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (1987). Thought contents and cognitive functioning in motivational versus volitional states of mind. Motivation and Emotion, 11(2), 101–120. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992338 v1被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，理论卡
Kluger, A. N., & DeNisi, A. (1996). The effects of feedback interventions on performance: A historical review, a meta-analysis, and a preliminary feedback intervention theory. Psychological Bulletin, 119(2), 254–284. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.119.2.254 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，4.17 有效性指标：机器是否在学习，10.8 指标的古德哈特化，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Locke, E. A., & Latham, G. P. (2002). Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation: A 35-year odyssey. American Psychologist, 57(9), 705–717. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.57.9.705 v1被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，理论卡
Michie, S., van Stralen, M. M., & West, R. (2011). The behaviour change wheel: A new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implementation Science, 6, 42. https://doi.org/10.1186/1748-5908-6-42 v1被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，理论卡
Mohr, D. C., Cuijpers, P., & Lehman, K. (2011). Supportive accountability: A model for providing human support to enhance adherence to eHealth interventions. Journal of Medical Internet Research, 13(1), e30. https://doi.org/10.2196/jmir.1602 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Nahum-Shani, I., Smith, S. N., Spring, B. J., et al. (2018). Just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) in mobile health: Key components and design principles for ongoing health behavior support. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 52(6), 446–462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12160-016-9830-8 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Ryan, R. M., & Deci, E. L. (2000). Self-determination theory and the facilitation of intrinsic motivation, social development, and well-being. American Psychologist, 55(1), 68–78. https://doi.org/10.1037/0003-066X.55.1.68 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Sheldon, K. M., & Elliot, A. J. (1999). Goal striving, need satisfaction, and longitudinal well-being: The self-concordance model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76(3), 482–497. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.76.3.482 C被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，理论卡
Steel, P. (2007). The nature of procrastination: A meta-analytic and theoretical review of quintessential self-regulatory failure. Psychological Bulletin, 133(1), 65–94. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.133.1.65 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，理论卡
Wrosch, C., Scheier, M. F., Miller, G. E., Schulz, R., & Carver, C. S. (2003). Adaptive self-regulation of unattainable goals. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 29(12), 1494–1508. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167203256921 v1被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，理论卡
Zimmerman, B. J. (2002). Becoming a self-regulated learner: An overview. Theory Into Practice, 41(2), 64–70. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15430421tip4102_2 v1被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，理论卡

14.2 贝叶斯、预测、决策与不确定性表达#

Aumann, R. J. (1976). Agreeing to disagree. The Annals of Statistics, 4(6), 1236–1239. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343654 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Brier, G. W. (1950). Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review, 78(1), 1–3. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2 C被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，4.17 有效性指标：机器是否在学习，理论卡
Clark, A. (2013). Whatever next? Predictive brains, situated agents, and the future of cognitive science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36(3), 181–204. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X12000477 C被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，理论卡
Clemen, R. T., & Winkler, R. L. (1999). Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 19(2), 187–203. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00399.x C被引用于：4.8 证据规则 G1–G7：防止，5. 扩展原则，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458–467. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Edwards, W., Lindman, H., & Savage, L. J. (1963). Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychological Review, 70(3), 193–242. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0044139 C被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，理论卡
Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to project management: Getting risks right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5–15. https://doi.org/10.1177/875697280603700302 C被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Friston, K. (2010). The free-energy principle: A unified brain theory? Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 11(2), 127–138. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn2787 C被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，理论卡
Genest, C., & Zidek, J. V. (1986). Combining probability distributions: A critique and an annotated bibliography. Statistical Science, 1(1), 114–135. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177013825 C被引用于：4.8 证据规则 G1–G7：防止，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Heuer, R. J., Jr. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence, CIA. 书目被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，7. 冲突的分类与处理，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Howard, R. A. (1966). Information value theory. IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics, 2(1), 22–26. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSSC.1966.300074 C被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 书目被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、
Kent, S. (1964). Words of estimative probability. Studies in Intelligence, 8(4), 49–65. 书目〔未核实页码〕被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，10.2 五档置信度没有数值锚，理论卡
Lovallo, D., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Delusions of success: How optimism undermines executives' decisions. Harvard Business Review, 81(7), 56–63. 书目被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），理论卡
Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., et al. (2011). The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: A common approach across the working groups. Climatic Change, 108(4), 675–691. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0178-6 C被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，10.2 五档置信度没有数值锚，理论卡
Mellers, B., Ungar, L., Baron, J., et al. (2014). Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. Psychological Science, 25(5), 1106–1115. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614524255 C被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2015). Intelligence Community Directive 203: Analytic Standards. 书目
Parr, T., Pezzulo, G., & Friston, K. J. (2022). Active Inference: The Free Energy Principle in Mind, Brain, and Behavior. MIT Press. 书目被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，理论卡
Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. 书目被引用于：10.4 因果识别薄弱
Popper, K. R. (1959). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Hutchinson. 书目被引用于：4.9 准入：新信念从低处起步并由本，理论卡
Savage, L. J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley. 书目被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，理论卡
Simon, H. A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99–118. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852 C被引用于：4.9 准入：新信念从低处起步并由本，理论卡
Stone, M. (1961). The opinion pool. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 32(4), 1339–1342. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704873 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Crown. 书目被引用于：4.7 信念账本与贝叶斯核心（M6、，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡

14.3 实验、学习循环与复盘#

Argyris, C. (1977). Double loop learning in organizations. Harvard Business Review, 55(5), 115–125. v1被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，理论卡
Argyris, C., & Schön, D. A. (1978). Organizational Learning: A Theory of Action Perspective. Addison-Wesley. v1被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，5. 扩展原则，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Bateson, G. (1972). Steps to an Ecology of Mind. Chandler. 书目被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，理论卡
Camuffo, A., Cordova, A., Gambardella, A., & Spina, C. (2020). A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision making: Evidence from a randomized control trial. Management Science, 66(2), 564–586. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3249 C被引用于：4.9 准入：新信念从低处起步并由本，4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Darling, M., Parry, C., & Moore, J. (2005). Learning in the thick of it. Harvard Business Review, 83(7), 84–92. 书目被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织
Deming, W. E. (1986). Out of the Crisis. MIT Press. v1被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，理论卡
Gans, J. S., Stern, S., & Wu, J. (2019). Foundations of entrepreneurial strategy. Strategic Management Journal, 40(5), 736–756. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3010 C被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，理论卡
Kazdin, A. E. (2011). Single-Case Research Designs: Methods for Clinical and Applied Settings (2nd ed.). Oxford University Press. 书目被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，10.4 因果识别薄弱，理论卡
Keiser, N. L., & Arthur, W., Jr. (2021). A meta-analysis of the effectiveness of the after-action review (or debrief) and factors that influence its effectiveness. Journal of Applied Psychology, 106(7), 1007–1032. https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000821 C被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Klasnja, P., Hekler, E. B., Shiffman, S., et al. (2015). Microrandomized trials: An experimental design for developing just-in-time adaptive interventions. Health Psychology, 34(S), 1220–1228. https://doi.org/10.1037/hea0000305 v1被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，理论卡
Klein, G. (2007). Performing a project premortem. Harvard Business Review, 85(9), 18–19. v1被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），理论卡
Kohavi, R., Tang, D., & Xu, Y. (2020). Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments. Cambridge University Press. 书目被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Langley, G. J., et al. (2009). The Improvement Guide (2nd ed.). Jossey-Bass. v1被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，理论卡
Nosek, B. A., Ebersole, C. R., DeHaven, A. C., & Mellor, D. T. (2018). The preregistration revolution. PNAS, 115(11), 2600–2606. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1708274114 C被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup. Crown Business. 书目被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，理论卡
Tannenbaum, S. I., & Cerasoli, C. P. (2013). Do team and individual debriefs enhance performance? A meta-analysis. Human Factors, 55(1), 231–245. https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720812448394 C被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，理论卡
Taylor, M. J., McNicholas, C., Nicolay, C., et al. (2014). Systematic review of the application of the plan–do–study–act method to improve quality in healthcare. BMJ Quality & Safety, 23(4), 290–298. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjqs-2013-001862 v1被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，10.5 治理成本高于反馈产出（零闭，理论卡
Thomke, S. H. (2003). Experimentation Matters. Harvard Business School Press. 书目被引用于：4.10 实验卡：押→做→看→判→改，理论卡

14.4 系统思考与系统动力学#

Andersen, D. F., Vennix, J. A. M., Richardson, G. P., & Rouwette, E. A. J. A. (2007). Group model building: Problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 58(5), 691–694. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602339 C被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Ashby, W. R. (1956). An Introduction to Cybernetics. Chapman & Hall. 书目被引用于：4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，理论卡
Beer, S. (1972). Brain of the Firm. Allen Lane. 书目被引用于：5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Conant, R. C., & Ashby, W. R. (1970). Every good regulator of a system must be a model of that system. International Journal of Systems Science, 1(2), 89–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207727008920220 C被引用于：4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial Dynamics. MIT Press. 书目被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，理论卡
Forrester, J. W. (1971). Counterintuitive behavior of social systems. Technology Review, 73(3), 52–68. 书目〔未核实页码〕被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，理论卡
Goldratt, E. M., & Cox, J. (1984). The Goal. North River Press. v1被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，理论卡
Meadows, D. (1999). Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System. The Sustainability Institute. v1被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，10.14 本体缺少「规则与制度」与，理论卡
Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green. v1
Repenning, N. P., & Sterman, J. D. (2001). Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened: Creating and sustaining process improvement. California Management Review, 43(4), 64–88. https://doi.org/10.2307/41166101 C被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，理论卡
Repenning, N. P., & Sterman, J. D. (2002). Capability traps and self-confirming attribution errors in the dynamics of process improvement. Administrative Science Quarterly, 47(2), 265–295. https://doi.org/10.2307/3094806 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，13. 组织示例（完全虚构）：河湾社，15. 阅读顺序建议
Senge, P. M. (1990). The Fifth Discipline. Doubleday. v1被引用于：4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Sterman, J. D. (1989). Modeling managerial behavior: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment. Management Science, 35(3), 321–339. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.35.3.321 C被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. v1被引用于：4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Vennix, J. A. M. (1996). Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics. Wiley. 书目被引用于：4.3 系统动力图：运作逻辑的主体（，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡

14.5 组织学习、意义建构、战略与能力#

Edmondson, A. (1999). Psychological safety and learning behavior in work teams. Administrative Science Quarterly, 44(2), 350–383. https://doi.org/10.2307/2666999 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Feldman, M. S., & Pentland, B. T. (2003). Reconceptualizing organizational routines as a source of flexibility and change. Administrative Science Quarterly, 48(1), 94–118. https://doi.org/10.2307/3556620 C被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，理论卡
Funnell, S. C., & Rogers, P. J. (2011). Purposeful Program Theory. Jossey-Bass. v1被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，理论卡
Huber, G. P. (1991). Organizational learning: The contributing processes and the literatures. Organization Science, 2(1), 88–115. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2.1.88 C被引用于：4.14 双口与信息汇流（M11、A，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Kurtz, C. F., & Snowden, D. J. (2003). The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world. IBM Systems Journal, 42(3), 462–483. https://doi.org/10.1147/sj.423.0462 v1被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），理论卡
Levitt, B., & March, J. G. (1988). Organizational learning. Annual Review of Sociology, 14, 319–338. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.so.14.080188.001535 C被引用于：4.14 双口与信息汇流（M11、A，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Lewin, K. (1947). Frontiers in group dynamics. Human Relations, 1(1), 5–41. https://doi.org/10.1177/001872674700100103 v1被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，理论卡
Lindblom, C. E. (1959). The science of "muddling through". Public Administration Review, 19(2), 79–88. https://doi.org/10.2307/973677 C被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），理论卡
March, J. G. (1991). Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organization Science, 2(1), 71–87. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2.1.71 C被引用于：4.12 三级复盘与节律分层（M7、，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Mintzberg, H., & Waters, J. A. (1985). Of strategies, deliberate and emergent. Strategic Management Journal, 6(3), 257–272. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250060306 C被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），理论卡
Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons. Cambridge University Press. 书目被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，10.14 本体缺少「规则与制度」与
Pfeffer, J., & Sutton, R. I. (2006). Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths, and Total Nonsense. Harvard Business School Press. 书目被引用于：4.9 准入：新信念从低处起步并由本，理论卡
Rousseau, D. M. (2006). Is there such a thing as "evidence-based management"? Academy of Management Review, 31(2), 256–269. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2006.20208679 C被引用于：4.9 准入：新信念从低处起步并由本，理论卡
Sarasvathy, S. D. (2001). Causation and effectuation. Academy of Management Review, 26(2), 243–263. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2001.4378020 v1被引用于：4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），理论卡
Scott, W. R. (1995). Institutions and Organizations. Sage. 书目被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，10.14 本体缺少「规则与制度」与
Teece, D. J. (2007). Explicating dynamic capabilities: The nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strategic Management Journal, 28(13), 1319–1350. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.640 C被引用于：5. 扩展原则，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Teece, D. J., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509–533. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199708)18:7<509::AID-SMJ882>3.0.CO;2-Z C被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，理论卡
Walsh, J. P., & Ungson, G. R. (1991). Organizational memory. Academy of Management Review, 16(1), 57–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/258607 C被引用于：4.14 双口与信息汇流（M11、A，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Weick, K. E. (1993). The collapse of sensemaking in organizations: The Mann Gulch disaster. Administrative Science Quarterly, 38(4), 628–652. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393339 C
Weick, K. E. (1995). Sensemaking in Organizations. Sage. 书目被引用于：5. 扩展原则，10.10 冷启动的结构锚定，理论卡
Weick, K. E., & Sutcliffe, K. M. (2007). Managing the Unexpected (2nd ed.). Jossey-Bass. 书目被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织
Weick, K. E., Sutcliffe, K. M., & Obstfeld, D. (2005). Organizing and the process of sensemaking. Organization Science, 16(4), 409–421. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1050.0133 C被引用于：5. 扩展原则，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Weiss, C. H. (1995). Nothing as practical as good theory. In J. Connell et al. (Eds.), New Approaches to Evaluating Community Initiatives. Aspen Institute. v1被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，4.5 路径图与未知终点（M3），理论卡

14.6 目标管理、战略执行与激励#

Anderson, D. J. (2010). Kanban. Blue Hole Press. v1被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4
Bungay, S. (2011). The Art of Action. Nicholas Brealey. 书目被引用于：7. 冲突的分类与处理，理论卡
Campbell, D. T. (1979). Assessing the impact of planned social change. Evaluation and Program Planning, 2(1), 67–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/0149-7189(79)90048-X C被引用于：4.17 有效性指标：机器是否在学习，10.8 指标的古德哈特化，理论卡
Doerr, J. (2018). Measure What Matters. Portfolio/Penguin. v1被引用于：5. 扩展原则
Eisenhardt, K. M. (1989). Agency theory: An assessment and review. Academy of Management Review, 14(1), 57–74. https://doi.org/10.2307/258191 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
Grove, A. S. (1983). High Output Management. Random House. v1被引用于：5. 扩展原则
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305–360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X C被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，5. 扩展原则，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Kaplan, R. S., & Norton, D. P. (1992). The balanced scorecard: Measures that drive performance. Harvard Business Review, 70(1), 71–79. 书目被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Kaplan, R. S., & Norton, D. P. (1996). The Balanced Scorecard: Translating Strategy into Action. Harvard Business School Press. 书目
Kerr, S. (1975). On the folly of rewarding A, while hoping for B. Academy of Management Journal, 18(4), 769–783. https://doi.org/10.2307/255378 C被引用于：4.17 有效性指标：机器是否在学习，10.8 指标的古德哈特化，理论卡
Mayer, R. C., Davis, J. H., & Schoorman, F. D. (1995). An integrative model of organizational trust. Academy of Management Review, 20(3), 709–734. https://doi.org/10.2307/258792 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
Ordóñez, L. D., Schweitzer, M. E., Galinsky, A. D., & Bazerman, M. H. (2009). Goals gone wild: The systematic side effects of overprescribing goal setting. Academy of Management Perspectives, 23(1), 6–16. https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2009.37007999 C被引用于：4.1 目标事件锚（M1、A1、A4，5. 扩展原则，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Rogers, P., & Blenko, M. (2006). Who has the D? How clear decision roles enhance organizational performance. Harvard Business Review, 84(1), 52–61. 书目被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Sull, D., Homkes, R., & Sull, C. (2015). Why strategy execution unravels—and what to do about it. Harvard Business Review, 93(3), 57–66. 书目〔未核实页码〕被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡

14.7 团队认知、群体决策与集体智能#

Clark, H. H., & Brennan, S. E. (1991). Grounding in communication. In L. B. Resnick, J. M. Levine, & S. D. Teasley (Eds.), Perspectives on Socially Shared Cognition (pp. 127–149). APA. https://doi.org/10.1037/10096-006 C被引用于：4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，理论卡
DeChurch, L. A., & Mesmer-Magnus, J. R. (2010). The cognitive underpinnings of effective teamwork: A meta-analysis. Journal of Applied Psychology, 95(1), 32–53. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017328 C被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4
Hong, L., & Page, S. E. (2004). Groups of diverse problem solvers can outperform groups of high-ability problem solvers. PNAS, 101(46), 16385–16389. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0403723101 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Janis, I. L. (1972). Victims of Groupthink. Houghton Mifflin. 书目被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Lewis, K. (2003). Measuring transactive memory systems in the field: Scale development and validation. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88(4), 587–604. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.88.4.587 C被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，理论卡
Mohammed, S., Ferzandi, L., & Hamilton, K. (2010). Metaphor no more: A 15-year review of the team mental model construct. Journal of Management, 36(4), 876–910. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206309356804 C
Stasser, G., & Titus, W. (1985). Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: Biased information sampling during discussion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 48(6), 1467–1478. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.48.6.1467 C被引用于：4.14 双口与信息汇流（M11、A，5. 扩展原则，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Wegner, D. M. (1987). Transactive memory: A contemporary analysis of the group mind. In B. Mullen & G. R. Goethals (Eds.), Theories of Group Behavior (pp. 185–208). Springer. 书目〔未核实页码〕被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Woolley, A. W., Chabris, C. F., Pentland, A., Hashmi, N., & Malone, T. W. (2010). Evidence for a collective intelligence factor in the performance of human groups. Science, 330(6004), 686–688. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1193147 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡

14.8 分布式认知、分布式能动与社会技术系统#

Baxter, G., & Sommerville, I. (2011). Socio-technical systems: From design methods to systems engineering. Interacting with Computers, 23(1), 4–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intcom.2010.07.003 C被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，10.17 「主人」措辞与对等模块框，理论卡
Callon, M. (1984). Some elements of a sociology of translation: Domestication of the scallops and the fishermen of St Brieuc Bay. The Sociological Review, 32(1_suppl), 196–233. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-954X.1984.tb00113.x C被引用于：4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，理论卡
Castelfranchi, C., & Falcone, R. (1998). Towards a theory of delegation for agent-based systems. Robotics and Autonomous Systems, 24(3–4), 141–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8890(98)00028-1 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Cherns, A. (1976). The principles of sociotechnical design. Human Relations, 29(8), 783–792. https://doi.org/10.1177/001872677602900806 C被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，5. 扩展原则，理论卡
Clark, A., & Chalmers, D. (1998). The extended mind. Analysis, 58(1), 7–19. https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/58.1.7 v1被引用于：4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，理论卡
Hollan, J., Hutchins, E., & Kirsh, D. (2000). Distributed cognition: Toward a new foundation for human-computer interaction research. ACM TOCHI, 7(2), 174–196. https://doi.org/10.1145/353485.353487 v1被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，理论卡
Hutchins, E. (1995). Cognition in the Wild. MIT Press. v1被引用于：4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，理论卡
Johnson, D. G. (2006). Computer systems: Moral entities but not moral agents. Ethics and Information Technology, 8(4), 195–204. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-006-9111-5 C被引用于：4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模
Latour, B. (2005). Reassembling the Social: An Introduction to Actor-Network-Theory. Oxford University Press. 书目被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，理论卡
Li, I., Dey, A., & Forlizzi, J. (2010). A stage-based model of personal informatics systems. Proceedings of CHI '10, 557–566. https://doi.org/10.1145/1753326.1753409 C被引用于：4.11 原话先存与三标签（A8、M，10.5 治理成本高于反馈产出（零闭，理论卡
Lincoln, Y. S., & Guba, E. G. (1985). Naturalistic Inquiry. Sage. 书目被引用于：4.11 原话先存与三标签（A8、M，理论卡
Risko, E. F., & Gilbert, S. J. (2016). Cognitive offloading. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 20(9), 676–688. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2016.07.002 v1被引用于：4.2 可修正模型：系统必须持有模型，4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，10.6 认知卸载与能力回收，理论卡
Star, S. L., & Griesemer, J. R. (1989). Institutional ecology, "translations" and boundary objects. Social Studies of Science, 19(3), 387–420. https://doi.org/10.1177/030631289019003001 C被引用于：5. 扩展原则，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
Suchman, L. A. (2007). Human-Machine Reconfigurations: Plans and Situated Actions (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808418 C被引用于：4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模
Trist, E. L., & Bamforth, K. W. (1951). Some social and psychological consequences of the longwall method of coal-getting. Human Relations, 4(1), 3–38. https://doi.org/10.1177/001872675100400101 C被引用于：4.4 要素图与七维产出（M2、02，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，理论卡
W3C (2013). PROV-DM: The PROV Data Model. W3C Recommendation. https://www.w3.org/TR/prov-dm/ 书目
Winograd, T., & Flores, F. (1986). Understanding Computers and Cognition. Ablex. 书目被引用于：4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡

14.9 人机协作、自动化与 AI 智能体#

Amershi, S., Weld, D., Vorvoreanu, M., et al. (2019). Guidelines for human-AI interaction. Proceedings of CHI '19. https://doi.org/10.1145/3290605.3300233 v1被引用于：4.15 分权与权限契约（A11），理论卡
Amodei, D., Olah, C., Steinhardt, J., Christiano, P., Schulman, J., & Mané, D. (2016). Concrete problems in AI safety. arXiv:1606.06565. C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，10.18 AI 对外行动的风险：差，理论卡
Bainbridge, L. (1983). Ironies of automation. Automatica, 19(6), 775–779. https://doi.org/10.1016/0005-1098(83)90046-8 v1被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，10.6 认知卸载与能力回收，理论卡
Bradshaw, J. M., Feltovich, P. J., Jung, H., Kulkarni, S., Taysom, W., & Uszok, A. (2004). Dimensions of adjustable autonomy and mixed-initiative interaction. In Agents and Computational Autonomy (LNCS 2969, pp. 17–39). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-25928-2_3 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
Chan, A., Salganik, R., Markelius, A., et al. (2023). Harms from increasingly agentic algorithmic systems. Proceedings of FAccT '23, 651–666. https://doi.org/10.1145/3593013.3594033 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，10.18 AI 对外行动的风险：差，理论卡
Costello, T. H., Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2024). Durably reducing conspiracy beliefs through dialogues with AI. Science, 385(6714), eadq1814. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adq1814 v1被引用于：10.15 AI 访谈中的谄媚与诱导
Endsley, M. R. (1995). Toward a theory of situation awareness in dynamic systems. Human Factors, 37(1), 32–64. https://doi.org/10.1518/001872095779049543 v1被引用于：4.14 双口与信息汇流（M11、A，4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
Feng, K. J. K., McDonald, D. W., & Zhang, A. X. (2025). Levels of autonomy for AI agents. arXiv:2506.12469. C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
Hoff, K. A., & Bashir, M. (2015). Trust in automation: Integrating empirical evidence on factors that influence trust. Human Factors, 57(3), 407–434. https://doi.org/10.1177/0018720814547570 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
Hollnagel, E., & Woods, D. D. (2005). Joint Cognitive Systems. CRC Press. v1被引用于：4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，5. 扩展原则，10.17 「主人」措辞与对等模块框，理论卡
Horvitz, E. (1999). Principles of mixed-initiative user interfaces. Proceedings of CHI '99, 159–166. https://doi.org/10.1145/302979.303030 v1被引用于：4.15 分权与权限契约（A11），理论卡
Huang, J., Chen, X., Mishra, S., et al. (2024). Large language models cannot self-correct reasoning yet. ICLR 2024. arXiv:2310.01798. https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.01798 C被引用于：4.8 证据规则 G1–G7：防止，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Kaber, D. B., & Endsley, M. R. (2004). The effects of level of automation and adaptive automation on human performance, situation awareness and workload in a dynamic control task. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science, 5(2), 113–153. https://doi.org/10.1080/1463922021000054335 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
Klein, G., Woods, D. D., Bradshaw, J. M., Hoffman, R. R., & Feltovich, P. J. (2004). Ten challenges for making automation a "team player" in joint human-agent activity. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 19(6), 91–95. https://doi.org/10.1109/MIS.2004.74 v1被引用于：4.6 单元清单：谁让事件发生（M4，4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，理论卡
Lee, H.-P., et al. (2025). The impact of generative AI on critical thinking. Proceedings of CHI '25. https://doi.org/10.1145/3706598.3713778 v1被引用于：4.13 本人模块：人被建模，但不被，10.6 认知卸载与能力回收，理论卡
Lee, J. D., & See, K. A. (2004). Trust in automation: Designing for appropriate reliance. Human Factors, 46(1), 50–80. https://doi.org/10.1518/hfes.46.1.50_30392 v1被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，9. 治理与问责，10.19 产品缺少授权的升级路径，理论卡
Miller, C. A., & Parasuraman, R. (2007). Designing for flexible interaction between humans and automation: Delegation interfaces for supervisory control. Human Factors, 49(1), 57–75. https://doi.org/10.1518/001872007779598037 C被引用于：4.19 行动授权阶梯：可调自主与赢，理论卡
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Vaccaro, M., Almaatouq, A., & Malone, T. (2024). When combinations of humans and AI are useful: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Nature Human Behaviour, 8, 2293–2303. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-024-02024-1 v1

14.10 并发与分布式系统（产品 Agent/02 引用的出处）#

Garcia-Molina, H., & Salem, K. (1987). Sagas. Proceedings of ACM SIGMOD '87, 249–259. https://doi.org/10.1145/38713.38742 C被引用于：4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，理论卡
Gray, C., & Cheriton, D. (1989). Leases: An efficient fault-tolerant mechanism for distributed file cache consistency. Proceedings of SOSP '89, 202–210. https://doi.org/10.1145/74850.74870 C被引用于：4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，理论卡
Hewitt, C., Bishop, P., & Steiger, R. (1973). A universal modular ACTOR formalism for artificial intelligence. Proceedings of IJCAI '73, 235–245. 书目被引用于：4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，理论卡
Kung, H. T., & Robinson, J. T. (1981). On optimistic methods for concurrency control. ACM Transactions on Database Systems, 6(2), 213–226. https://doi.org/10.1145/319566.319567 C被引用于：4.16 多 Agent 与正本：单，理论卡

14.11 治理、问责与伦理#

Bovens, M. (2007). Analysing and assessing accountability: A conceptual framework. European Law Journal, 13(4), 447–468. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0386.2007.00378.x C被引用于：5. 扩展原则，9. 治理与问责，理论卡
Elish, M. C. (2019). Moral crumple zones: Cautionary tales in human-robot interaction. Engaging Science, Technology, and Society, 5, 40–60. https://doi.org/10.17351/ests2019.260 C被引用于：4.15 分权与权限契约（A11），4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，9. 治理与问责，10.18 AI 对外行动的风险：差，理论卡
ISO/IEC 42001:2023. Information technology — Artificial intelligence — Management system. 书目
Lerner, J. S., & Tetlock, P. E. (1999). Accounting for the effects of accountability. Psychological Bulletin, 125(2), 255–275. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.125.2.255 C被引用于：6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，9. 治理与问责，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡
Matthias, A. (2004). The responsibility gap: Ascribing responsibility for the actions of learning automata. Ethics and Information Technology, 6(3), 175–183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-004-3422-1 C被引用于：4.15 分权与权限契约（A11），4.18 人与 AI 是对等的能动模，10.18 AI 对外行动的风险：差，理论卡
Nissenbaum, H. (2004). Privacy as contextual integrity. Washington Law Review, 79(1), 119–157. 书目被引用于：4.11 原话先存与三标签（A8、M，6. 逐层扩展：每个模块在团队、组织，理论卡
NIST (2023). Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.AI.100-1 v1
Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1689/oj v1〔第 14 条与附件 III 的引述未逐条核对条文〕
Santoni de Sio, F., & van den Hoven, J. (2018). Meaningful human control over autonomous systems: A philosophical account. Frontiers in Robotics and AI, 5, 15. https://doi.org/10.3389/frobt.2018.00015 C被引用于：4.9 准入：新信念从低处起步并由本，4.15 分权与权限契约（A11），9. 治理与问责，15. 阅读顺序建议，理论卡